Category: DFL Gov 2010
Posted: 03/04/10 13:28
by Dave Mindeman
Let's forget about the delegate chase for a moment and concentrate on the real bottom line in the DFL Governor's race. And that all boils down to two questions -- Who can win in November? and Who can govern effectively?
All the hype and hoopla during the convention and primary will mean very little if those questions aren't answered.
So, let's speculate about that and see if you agree or disagree.
I'm taking the candidates in alphabetical order (not a ranking) and discuss the impressions I have gotten over the course of the last year. I am going to add an additional criteria which affects whether or not they can win in November -- and that is an evaluation of their campaign style and effectiveness.
1.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher.
Campaigning. MAK has a wealth of policy knowledge at her disposal. She can communicate it quite well, but her style is somewhat mundane and professorial. That's not a major problem but it could lead to difficulties in motivating the base. And that motivation is important for turnout.
Win in November? MAK has name recognition that comes from her Speaker position in the House. Press coverage abounds and what she says and does is heavily scrutinized. This is both good and bad. The state gets to know her well, but they also form positive or negative impressions that can be locked in. Transitioning from legislative to campaign mode will be more of a challenge for her because of the baggage she will ultimately carry. Her ability to win in November is tied very closely to the perceived (and I do mean perceived) success or failure of this year's session. So, in the end, Yes, I think she can win in November, but she carries with that a host of qualifiers that can shape the difficulty of that ability to win.
Governance. If MAK can win, there is no question that she would be an excellent governor. She has built in relationships with the legislative body which will allow her to know what issues have the best chance of movement. That can make her look and be effective as the chief executive.
2.
Tom Bakk. Campaigning. Bakk also has a wealth of policy knowledge. He has also got the right theme...JOBS. Often, in campaigning, people who are worried about jobs just need to know that the candidate is as concerned about it as they are. What the solution will be is not always clear but the empathy is important. Bakk doesn't have a fiery style, although once in awhile there is a spark that shows through. He has a commanding presence which makes people notice.
Win November? Bakk lacks the state wide name recognition to give this an easy yes. There is no question that he would solidify the Iron Range vote, and frankly, that will be needed very much this year. Other areas will be troublesome and I'm not sure how well he can play with the liberal metro. As the DFL nominee, there will certainly be ample opportunity for the party regulars to warm up to a Bakk candidacy, but right now, confidence would be low in that regard. On the other hand, Bakk can appeal to independents with his fiscal knowledge and big picture philosophy. On the whole, the jury is still out.
Governance. Like MAK, Bakk has the legislative background and relationships to make him an excellent governor. Bakk may have some different items on his agenda, but he also has the skills to move legislation and set priorities that can give Bakk a presence that will look a little more independent from the party. That could actually make him more effective overall.
3.
Mark Dayton.
Campaigning. Mark brings to the table a wealth of experience. He has run and won several state wide campaigns. He knows how to get the best staff and understands the GOP methods. However, he also drags along enormous baggage. The attacks from the opposition will be relentless. How Mark is able to deal with that, (and experience says he can), will be critical.
Win in November? Again, he has done it. He knows how to run an effective campaign. But there are always caveats with that as well. Has he worn out his welcome? Can he win the messsage war that will surely develop over his record? In the end, experience does matter and I would think he can win.
Governance. Mark has made a case that his legislative style doesn't fit well as one member of a legislative body. He feels much more comfortable and confident being a chief executive. And I think that is very true. He ran the auditor's office well by all accounts and he has managed several statewide campaigns seamlessly. He has already been outlining a vision of where he wants to take the state and he has the experience to get us there.
4.
Matt Entenza. Campaigning. Matt has a low key approach in his style. He likes to explain things in detail...sometimes too much. Maybe Matt is low in "charisma", but he makes up for it in organization. His staff are top people who know what they are doing and are very effective.
Win in November? A lot of messaging and image are related to monetary investment in a campaign. Matt will certainly have no problem with that. Any shortcomings that might appear to be a problem for the candidate have a chance to be fixed if you have the financing. Matt can win in November.
Governance. Entenza has a lot of the advantage that MAK has in governance but they are not as current. There are still members in the legislature who have strong connections to Matt from his days as minority leader, but their a dwindling number. But, in Entenza's favor, many of the ones that are left are in leadership positions. Matt is another candidate with a vision for the state. He will lead this state if given the opportunity.
5.
Susan Gaertner.Campaigning. I've always thought that she makes a good impression when communicating, but I may be in the minority on that opinion. Gaertner's campaign suffers most from lack of exposure...whether that is a money issue or just a "wait till it counts" strategy is unknown. Unless things pick up, she will not be a factor going forward.
Win in November? When you are having difficulty getting traction within your own party, the difficulties for November are obvious. She seems to have a message that could attract independent voters, but unless she can solidify the base, that won't matter. Right now, November is not realistic.
Governance. There are a lot of question marks here as well. Although she likes to point out Amy Klobuchar's jump from County Attorney to the US Senate, that is still not the kind of leap Gaertner is asking us to make in her own case....County Attorney to Chief Executive. Granted, she has run her department well and is fully responsible for its budget, but it is difficult to extrapolate it.
6.
John Marty.Campaigning. Marty's campaign has focused on the DFL progressive base. He's right -- we like him. But unless he finds a method that will reach out beyond that, Marty will be saddled with that 1994 defeat forever.
Win in November? A narrowly focused campaign is not a prescription for instilling confidence in a November win. John Marty has principles and believes he is right. He also believes that he can argue that stance to the general electorate and win. I admire the grit, but practicality says, it's not going to happen.
Governance. A victorious John Marty would be a governor to remember. He could transform this state and bring progressive goals to fruition. Governor Marty would be a very good thing.
7.
Tom Rukavina.Campaigning. Rukavina is a campaign favorite of nearly everybody. His style is agressive, humorous, and engaging. If we could market the Rukavina style in a bottle, we would never lose.
Win in November? I didn't give a Rukavina Nov win much chance early on, but having seen the progress he has made in a short amount of time, I hesitate to count him out anymore. Given full party backing and enough resources to give that style a full state wide audience, who knows? Rukavina brings up Paul Wellstone in his talks to activists....and activists have made that comparison as well. Is this the type of year for that? I don't know. But I'm leaning more to the side that Rukavina can pull it off.
Governance. From an Iron Range perspective, if I had to choose a governor from Rukavina and Bakk, I'd probably see Bakk as the better choice. However, that is mostly because Rukavina is an unknown quantity as a chief executive. After years fighting battles in the legislature and advocating for a particular position, can he switch to governance that has broader appeal. Rukavina is an unknown commodity here.
8.
R.T. Rybak.Campaigning. Rybak is probably the best campaigner of the lot. He is engaging, optimistic, and imbues passion. Rybak can sell his message, no question. Even though he has a metro outlook, I think he can make the sale statewide.
Win in November? The question has always been, can Rybak appeal outstate? With his style and contagious enthusiasm, I think he can do it. He will have a lot of hard work to do -- the outstate bias will be against him -- but the indications are that he can overcome an obstacle like that. Rybak looks and feels like a winner.
Governance. I am not as confident about governance. Sure, he has managed a substantial city budget, but it is a weak mayoral position. Rybak's strength will be at the bully pulpit. He can make the case for his policies. But he will need to surround himself with solid policy people who can engage and convince a legislature that looks for substance, not style. There will be a learning curve here, but not a reason to worry a great deal.
9.
Paul Thissen.Campaigning. Paul is a solid campaigner. He is at his best in small groups or one on one. He is engaging, self-effacing, and empathetic. He connects. Statewide name is lacking, but if he is the endorsed candidate and given the chance to get a hearing, he will make a strong case.
Win in November? Thissen will have to get a fast start and will actually need the extra time between primary and general to introduce himself to the general electorate. He will also need money for message and imaging which he still has to prove he can come up with. His primary fundraising indicates he can. He is not an obvious choice but he does seem like a person who can win.
Governance. His legislative credentials are solid, but he has to prove he can run the show. It would be a positive if Thissen can make a distinguishing mark at the legislature this session. There are several issues that could use some bold leadership. The question marks in this regard can be answered with a convincing campaign.
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As you can probably tell, I do not think there is a bad candidate in the lot. The DFL still needs to make some wise choices but I don't see a candidate that can't be supported by the base of the party.
Personally, I am going to be a delegate to the DFL convention and this evaluation process is my own path to that vote.
Undecided? You betcha. Along with 40% of the convention.
I'll share more of that path of mine as we go.
