Category: DFL Gov 2010

by Dave Mindeman
dmindeman06@yahoo.com

OK -- back to the lion's den and the end of the month rankings for the DFL Governor candidates. Ranking this large field is getting more difficult without some actual preference polling or public input. There are a number of variables which I'll discuss as we go along.

A couple of important notes. The DFL will be holding a September 15th straw poll (actually using ranked choice) at 3 different locations listed in the article. Although this is Rybak's home turf, the voting is open to anyone, so it may be a good indication of how well the candidates can mobilize supporters.

Secondly, mnpACT! continues its DFL Candidate for Governor series on Friday, September 11, (Open Circle Church in Burnsville) hosting John Marty and Paul Thissen. A good chance to get up close and personal with your questions.

Unlike the GOP, the DFL still has the likely potential that there will be a primary contest. So one of the things that will be watched closely is the financials. Candidates who can raise the money can gear up for a long primary contest. Those that can't come up with the greenbacks will probably have to pack it in if they can't get the convention endorsement.

Remember, this is just an opinion. If you have comments, please make them. If you want to pass along information that is pertinent to your particular candidate, my e-mail address is at the top. So, without furthur ado, the August rankings:

11. Tom Rukavina (formerly #10): Still finding his place in a crowded field. Guess we are all waiting for the patented Rukavinia sound bites to rise to the occasion and get him some press. They will come, I'm sure. Meanwhile he has to work his way up the ladder.

10. Susan Gaertner (formerly #7): Gaertner's message is fine and her stance on the issues have a broad DFL appeal, but she continues to be dogged by the RNC situation. Persistent protesters are following her everywhere -- even to Chicago. Fair or unfair, it is a distraction she doesn't need for a gubernatorial campaign.

9. Steve Kelley (formerly #11): Kelley moves up a couple of places. He has been working hard on grass roots development and also in alternative media. Still a ways to go, but his previous support from 2006 is still relevant. Money is a real key for him.

8. Tom Bakk (formerly #8): Bakk has been writing some good op-ed pieces and his focus on jobs is the right one, but as chair of the Senate Tax Committee, he is also going to have to have a good answer for increasing taxes. His committee proposed a bill that did just that and he will need to defend that as well as emphasize jobs. His message needs tweaking if it is to withstand election scrutiny. Treading water so far.

7. John Marty (formerly #9): Marty moves up a couple of places because he will attract a significant number of delegates with his strong single payer stand. He does not shy away from it and boldly defends it. Maybe that is a hard position to make for a general election, but it makes him a player for the convention. You have to admire his stance on principle...but is that going to win in November? -- its up to Marty to make that case.

6. Paul Thissen (formerly #6): Thissen is still doing the hard work that can give him an edge for the convention. He is making the appearances and doing the house parties. His strategy will probably have to concentrate on an endorsement. He doesn't yet have the name recognition to compete in a statewide primary without it.

5. Chris Coleman (formerly #5): Can't decide if Coleman is moving down or up -- so I'll keep him at #5. He's obviously interested in a governor run -- his beefed up staffing isn't needed for a mayoral re-election. But how he transitions from his current election to the next is tricky. Rybak is a little more open about it and he has the Draft RT group working outside his campaign. We'll know more soon.

4. Margaret Anderson Kelliher (formerly #4): She gets a little help from the GOP in her quest. They attack her with a billboard at the State Fair....nothing says fundraising, like a billboard slam. She still has some work to do and the 2010 session will make or break her candidacy. She will be the symbolic face of how the legislature fares in the mind of the public -- good or bad.

Still looking at the primary triumvarate.....

3. R.T. Rybak (formerly #3): The DraftRT group has a booth at the fair and are signing people up....that sure can't hurt a potential candidate for governor. The mayor has to continue to engage Pawlenty on issues at every opportunity and make some progress outstate. Its a challenge for a large city mayor, but Rybak seems to be working on it. He has to have a big showing at the straw poll on the 15th.

2. Mark Dayton (formerly #1): Dayton is still doing all the right things....making lots of grass roots connections and calling in markers from many years with the party. Still you have the feeling that he needs something else...that something is missing. He has been showing some more passion in his speeches and his issues are sharpening. He has made some bold pronouncements on raising taxes on the wealthy and regarding single payer health care. I would hope that he would also be ready to make those arguments in a general election as well.

1. Matt Entenza (formerly #2): I flipped Mark and Matt because of the Entenza additon of Dana Houle to his staff....and the excellent press he received during his southern Minnesota swing. Entenza's campaign staff is looking very strong and I would imagine his coffers are ready to do whatever is needed. Lois Quam has been more vocal of late on health care issues as well. Still there just seems to be that lack of passion in Matt -- almost robotic. A true policy wonk, he needs to get beyond that and speak to the heart of the average voter.

Most of this is, of course, a lot of speculation. The more telling items to watch will be financial reports and the polls that will start to pop up during the winter months.

Still, I don't see this field getting reduced for some time and frankly, that is good for policy debate. Take part in it.

Category: GOP Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Well, its the end of another month and time to take a look at our herd of governor candidates. Today, its the GOP.

What is interesting in this field is that the number of subtractions has already come into play. Over the course of the last few weeks those subtractions have reduced the viable candidate numbers.

Steve Sviggum has for all intents and purposes been eliminated because his job comes under the Hatch Act (Federal Employees or those who work in positions covered by Federal regulations can't be involved in politics). I had Sviggum at #3 last month, but several analysts have said that this scuttles the Sviggum campaign completely.

Next, Senator Paul Koehring ended his campaign as well. I never put him on the list because it didn't seem likely that an openly gay political candidate could make any traction in the GOP. Sen. Koehring pretty much confirmed that by leaving the race. It is unfortunate, but he has to be given political credit for winning his re-election bid in 2006. He does have political instincts, but he has a pretty small base to work with -- Republicans seldom support gay politicians and Koehring came out against gay marriage, losing what support he could muster from the other side of the aisle. He is kind of a man without a country.

Norm Coleman put his possible Governor bid out to pasture as well. Putting off a decision until next year? Might as well give it up. With caucuses in early February and the convention at the end of April, next year is much too late. It looks like Norm is out unless the field completely collapses and the GOP rank and file begin a "draft Norm" movement. Possible... but the field is too big for that to be realistic.

A note on Laura Brod. No indications yet as to whether she will get back into the race. She still has been making overtures about returning and if she does, she would be the only current non-candidate (besides Norm) who would have an immediate impact. That ability diminshes as times goes by, so I will leave her off the ranking for now.

I'm taking Geoff Michel (formerly #7) off the list as well. No paperwork filed and no public appearances. He still has the chops to be a factor, but doesn't seem to be making the overtures for now.

I still hesitate to put Leslie Davis, Philip Herwig, or Bill Haas on the ranking list. Davis is pretty much trying to sell his anti-Jesse book and Herwig is just running, well, because he can. Haas has the legislative experience to make his case, but his name recognition is about zero. So, the rankings get narrower:

7. Charlie Weaver: (last month #10) There has been little movement toward being a candidate for Weaver. The odds of him running are diminishing. He remains on the list because he would still garner support if he makes a move. Possible staff person for Pawlenty for President?

6. Mike Jungbauer: (last month #9) We aren't sure what God has been telling him lately, but it certainly hasn't had the burning bush quality to it. He can certainly make a good case with the Religious Right base, but it don't seem like much else is happening here.

5. David Hann: (last month #8) Hann might pick up where Geoff Michel could have made inroads. He is an experienced legislator and can articulate education issues pretty well. If he can pull in some decent fundraising numbers, he could get off the ground.

4. Paul Kohls: (last month #6) Still gives a good anti-government talk, so he will always get brownie points with the GOP base. Like Hann, it is going to depend on money numbers. That will tell us the real viability.

3. Tom Emmer: (last month #4) Never lacking in confidence, it was interesting to watch his KSTP interview with his long time buddy, Tom Hauser on channel 5. He really thinks his ideas are "mainstream". Gotta love the cajones there. Still doesn't strike me as a statewide candidate, but guess we'll see where this leads.

2. Pat Anderson: (last month #2) Although she is the only woman in the GOP race so far, her appeal really gravitates from the libertarian wing of the party. Her position as President of the MN Free Market Institute gives her a forum for her views (I mistakenly listed her as affiliated with MN Majority last month -- I stand chastised for that). Recently, the MNFMI held a symposium for climate deniers. Now that will endear her to the GOP hard core, but how will that play to a Minnesota that is committed to alternative energy?

1. Marty Seifert: (last month #1) I tend to think that this race is coming down to Marty Seifert against the rest of the field. Unless somebody starts to confront Seifert directly soon, this race may be over before we even get into 2010. If the former minority leader comes in with big fundraising numbers, as expected, the gap will only widen.

The next event that will continue the winnowing process is the off year state convention in October. There will be a straw poll to measure early support -- that will probably cut the field in half.

More at the end of September.

Category: Kersten

by Dave Mindeman

I get a little concerned about Katherine Kersten sometimes. She seems to be a little phobic about a number of things. I wonder if she has considered analysis?

Her column, this week, features Cassy Hough and the Anscombe Society at Princeton. This group is devoted to long term chaste, marriage oriented relationships.

As Kersten sees it, the Anscombe Society's promotion of marriage and chastity has an uphill battle against the drunken debauchery of college life. And, here I thought they were the halls of academia.

I got curious about the Anscombe Society though. Why that name? Well, their website answers that question:

Gertrude Elizabeth Margaret (G.E.M., or Elizabeth) Anscombe (1919-2001), a student and literary executor of Wittgenstein, was a British analytic philosopher -- according to some, the 20th century's greatest. Her 1957 book Intention, on the role of reasoning in human action, has become a modern classic; her penetrating analysis of traditional sexual ethics in a 1977 essay "Contraception and Chastity" displays the rigor of her moral reasoning and the vigor of her defense of family values. A highly regarded Cambridge professor, wife, and mother of seven, she was chosen as our namesake for her unabashed dedication to the life of the mind and to marriage and family in her life and work.

Although Anscombe did have strong feelings on the subject -- she was a devout Catholic and anti-choice person -- that was only one of her public causes.

I wonder if Katie Kersten would be happy with Anscombe's other personna -- she was a stubborn peace activist. She worked against the US entry into World War II and considered Harry Truman a war criminal for his use of the atomic bomb on Japan.

Anscombe also shredded C.S. Lewis' arguments against naturalism and even though she was a devout Catholic, she could not accept Lewis's arguments that Naturalism was self-defeating (which in theory would prove the existence of the supernatural). A paper by Anscombe that thoroughly dissected Lewis point by point, caused the Christian philosopher Lewis to stop writing on pure religious theological argument, moving to his famous children and devotional books instead.

The Anscombe Society focuses only on Anscombe's 1977 essay "Contraception and Chastity". Which essentially sums up Anscombe's Catholic faith.

Now, the reason I go into this is that Kersten and Hough seem to want the world to be very simple. To Kersten, college life is about sexual mores -- not about learning, not about social contacts, and not about young people learning about who they are. To Hough, Anscombe is a hero to her because they share the idea of life at conception and marriage only sex....not about peaceniks or more complex theology.

College is a testing ground for young people. Some will meet Kersten and Hough's high moral standards....but many more will fall far short. Probably not total depravity but certainly short of the born again standard.

Kersten and Hough expect people to conform to a standard they choose. But people have their own choices to make. And only when young people get out on their own can they truly examine what their own philosophy will move toward.

Kersten may have low expectations about how those choices will turn out, but, in the end, it is not her choice to make.

Anscombe was a more complex person than Hough and Kersten give her credit for -- I think it is only fair that college students be allowed to move beyond simplified platitudes as well.

And really, Kersten still should consider that analysis thing -- this obsession with sex isn't healthy.