Posted: 11/28/06 20:25
by Dave Mindeman
Arguing about what to call the current Iraq mess seems a little pointless. Instead of debating terminology, it seems much more important to be doing something constructive. But we lost that avenue long ago.
I fear that all the windows of opportunity have closed as Bush and company tried to hide the growing chaos.... now it looks more and more as if its 4th down and long and Bush is going to punt this debacle into Democratic hands, hoping to share enough blame to save his presidential legacy.
There is no solution.... only loss-cutting. Bush has put all of America's political capital and prestige into an Iraqi whirlpool that is sucking us under.
We are faced with some dire choices. We have to leave and soon. Our presence is not part of any solution...only part of the problem. The government in place right now has no political will to take control; they are waiting for some outside force to decide how to proceed. There is no input for security, no protection mechanisms for the educators, no law enforcement outside of militias, no sense of political compromise or negotiation, and no ability to build up an infrastructure of basic necessities.
In short... the people have no place to turn and are at the mercy of the thugs, the thieves, and the theocrats.
There is no military solution and now there is no political solution. It will soon be left up to the ones who have built up the largest armed force and all indications would point to Muqtada al-Sadr.
Our risk is two fold. If we keep our troops in place, even at a reduced level, our troops only become targets and observers of the fighting. Our only purpose would be to slow things down and maybe protect remnants of a government. If we leave, we risk fighting that could spill over into bordering countries -- Turkey and Iran are at high risk to fuel more fighting; and Jordan could be in danger of a wholesale refugee deluge. Syria and Saudi Arabia would soon follow as the they take sides in the sectarian dividing lines. Yet, leaving seems the only way that the Iraqis will understand the urgency of finding their own method of establishing any kind of government. The idea of a democratic one is basically gone.
There is only one other choice... Bush would have to swallow hard and ask for international help. Iran, Syria, and the other neighbors would have to be included. China and Russia could probably be coaxed into helping if they can finesse some international prestige and political capital out of it.
There is no way for the US to save face anymore. We have a crisis of credibility which will take a generation to repair.
Democrats may have regained some political power but it was more or less because the American people voted against the current policies, not for some Democratic solution. Democrats need a magic wand to wave or they will be sucked into the same abyss.
And the American people's patience will not be kind.



