Category: Minnesota Politics

by Dave Mindeman

In the space of about 96 hours the GOP has done the following:

A) Made Harold Ford of Tennesse look like a sleazy, interracial playboy...

B) Insinuated that Michael J. Fox "pretends" his symptoms worsen for political effect..

C) Made a misstatement by John Kerry into a liberal elitist credo.

These 3 events have two things in common: They are personal attacks on individuals and they are totally devoid of issue content.

Now Harold Ford's personal night life is not anybody's business except Harold Ford's. But GOP sleaze artists love to use the subtle inuendo, especially when they can drudge up old southern taboos. It is ugly but they turn to it every election cycle.

The attack on Michael J. Fox was pure character assassination. The GOP knows his message is effective... they know it will reach and touch people. So, the game plan becomes to destroy the messenger. It has no justifiable legitimacy but they pull this weapon out at every single opportunity.

And in Kerry's case, the noise machine that Republicans have been fine tuning for 2 decades, whipped into high gear. This became a national issue before Kerry was even aware of any misstatement. They have no boundaries and no apology would ever be enough. The noise drowns out any substantive debate -- and that is the intention.

Voters get sucked into this vortex of political machinery. If only the Republicans could translate that efficiency into how they govern!

Category: US Politics

by Dave Mindeman

OK, let's stretch the bounds of imagination and say that I was a neutral party in this election. Let's say I have mixed opinions about the Iraq War and I actually listen to what Bush is saying about the subject. It's a stretch but let's just assume....

President Bush is saying (as he did today) that the difference between Democrats and Republicans is that Democrats want to "leave" Iraq, while Republicans want to "win" in Iraq.

Now, as an "independent" voter, let me process that. The Iraq "situation" has been going on for over 3 years now. Our soldiers are getting killed as much or more today, then they were at the beginning. The government that we are propping up in Baghdad is incapable of stopping the violence and sometimes ties
our hands when we look for solutions. They are even beginning to question the very policies of the US administration that keeps them in power.

We still do not have a handle on the electrical grid and clean water. The sectarian violence (the euphemism for civil war) grows more gruesome each day and the militias are the real police force.

Now where in all of that is there even the hint of victory? Victory or defeat is completely out of context now. We won the military portion of this a long time ago. We are now an occupying police force -- and not a very successful one at that because we have no real allies here. We need a political solution... the concept of victory no longer pertains to this mess.

Democrats are right. We have to leave. Not abruptly...but with more actual will than the current US government can muster. New ideas, new plans, new political solutions are crucial. We need a comprehensive group of nations at the table -- not ultimatums and threats with no teeth.

It is not about winning or losing. It is about stability vs. chaos. The win or lose rhetoric simply proves that this administration cannot take us where we need to go. It is not a matter of "if" we leave but having a real plan that leaves as soon as we can, with a stable government left behind that can figure out its own path to "victory".

Category: Minnesota Politics

by Dave Mindeman

The Minnesota Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats with a 38-29 margin. In the 2006 election, it has settled into trench warfare with both sides trying to defend the turf they have rather than many attempts at expansion.

There are certainly some races worth noting:

District 23: John Hottinger retired and left this open seat in the Mankato area. This races involves two experienced and well known politicians in the area. Former Republican legislator Mark Piepho against former mayor pro-tem Kathy Sheran from Mankato. This area has become a swing area and the contest will be close. I think it will depend on how high the turnout is in the rural areas. This is a very close call but I have a feeling Piepho will squeak this one out. Turnover for Republicans.

District 12: Paul Koering, the openly gay Republican Senator from this district had to endure a very tough primary fight. That drained his campaign funds and left district support questionable. Terry Sluss is a strong, well funded DFL candidate and Koering only won by about 150 votes last time. I look for the conservative vote to sit on their hands and Sluss to win. Turnover for Democrats.

District 30: This is Sheila Kiscaden's Rochester seat and features a strong Republican candidate from the Mayo Clinic, Dr. Scott Wright and DFLer, School Board member, Ann Lynch. Dr. Wright has run a strong campaign and has focused on a lot of Mayo Clinic's health issue concerns. Lynch is also a strong, well known candidate but I think the edge (and it is close) will end up with Scott Wright. Turnover for Republicans.

District 38: We are going to find out how real the Democratic trending is in the Eagan area this year.... and I am betting that it will be enough to make Jim Carlson the next DFL Senator from that area. People forget that Mike McGinn squeaked out a 24 vote win over then incumbent Deanna Wiener in that race. Democrats seem to be coming back in District 38; and Mike McGinn has not done much to distinguish himself. Turnover for Democrats.

There are a number of DFL incumbents that will need strong races to hold their seats. Dallas Sams in District 11 is getting hit hard; Dean Johnson, the majority leader, has been assaulted from every direction on social issues; Taryl Clark in St. Cloud has to prove her special election win was no fluke; Dan Sparks in District 27 had the narrowest of wins last time but this time there isn't an independent candidate to siphon votes; Steve Murphy in District 28 has been on the Republican target list again; and Terri Bonoff in District 43 will also have to prove she can win a general election (District 43 has very close races in the House districts too). Sharon Marko and Steve Kelley have left open seats but the new candidates look to be in good position to win. Leo Foley and Don Betzold have been looked at by GOP targeting, but I think they also appear to be weathering the storm. I think all of these races will hold for the incumbents.

The Republican side is actually in better shape if you consider vulnerability. I had thought Sean Nienow (Dist 17) and Tom Neuville (Dist 25) might be vulnerable at one time but I don't think so anymore. Bob Kierlin retired in District 31, but the GOP candidate has Kierlin as campaign manager and is also well funded -- plus a strong independence candidate will probably siphon votes from the DFLer. Have to consider this a probable GOP hold. Michelle Bachmann's old seat in District 52 also looks like it will stay in the GOP column as Rep. Ray Vandeveer looks like the successor -- although the DFL candidate is a good one and well funded.

So, as it looks now, it seems to be a wash. The DFL will hold its 38-29 majority... which is still a good working majority. Coupled with my forecast of a 73-61 DFL House, it could be a very positive year in the Minnesota legislature.