Category: Minnesota Politics

by PDW58

Politicos always handicap races based on what happened in previous cycles and generally that is a reasonable barometer. Republicans have dominated the South Metro area for a long time.... but the same was said about the Rochester House districts in Olmsted County. Now that area is a hotbed of Democratic activity and has even given rise to the hope of a Congressional upset.

Signs are visible that the next potential Democratic target should be the South Metro -- Dakota and Scott counties. The GOP has always considered this area a stronghold and they currently dominate the elected offices -- for now. Of 21 House Seats in the geographic area, Republicans hold 19 of them. But the demographics are changing ever so slightly and the Democratic challengers are getting better.

In the 2004 cycle, Democrats in 40A (Will Morgan) and 37A (Shelley Madore) both lost by margins of about 400 votes. The districts cover most of Burnsville and Apple Valley and are right next door to each other. Two races in the same geographic area with similar percentages indicates a shift of some kind. It should be explored. The Democratic candidates from those two races are both running again. I would hope the Democratic House caucus is taking notice -- it could be the place they find a way to take control of the Minnesota House.

Other districts in the area are also showing some potential. In Pawlenty's home district in Eagan, Democrats are cominig back. In 2004, Jim Carlson (no relation to Arnie) ran a strong race in District 38A -- he got hammered by a late blitz of Republican House caucus mailings to protect Pawlenty's district. Now, Carlson has decided to run for the State Senate seat against Mike McGinn, and a new candidate, Mike Obermueller, has emerged to take on 38A. They are good candidates with strong campaign committees and had early starts.... they also deserve some scrutiny and support.

District 36 comprises the rapidly growing communities of Farmington and Lakeville. Lots of growth and lots of new voters. Pat Garofalo is the Republican incumbant in 36B...but he had the audacity to vote for a desperately needed gas tax increase and suddenly, the conservatives in the party called for his head. He squeaked by a convention challenge and now has to face a solid Democrat in Paul Hardt. With a little more funding and support, this could be a competitive seat, too.

These areas have never been on the radar for the DFL party -- but when the House Democrats came so close last time to taking back the House.......well, maybe they shouldn't be writing this area off again. Opportunities don't come knocking at doors without the lights on.....

Category: Minnesota Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Today's Supreme Court decision about the Texas redistricting may be looked at as a downer for Democrats generally, but for Minnesota Democrats, it could be a golden opportunity.

That decision opens the door for redistricting maps outside the boundaries of the census. This would be a golden opportunity for a political party that controls the governorship along with both houses of the legislature. With some very hard work and a little luck, that could be Democrats in Minnesota.

Hatch (or Lourey) wins, the State Senate holds, and the one seat majority for the GOP in the House turns over. What would stop us from remapping the Congressional seats in this state? If the Republicans cry foul.... blame it on Delay and the new Supreme Court. They fixed it for themselves --- now we can unfix it.

Work hard for that Democratic House majority.... the opportunities abound!

Category: World Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Iraq Prime Minister Al-Maliki's reconciliation plan has been proposed. Ironicially, it calls for timetabled negotiated withdrawal of American troops. As Russ Feingold articulated on Meet the Press, Maliki's plan is essentially the Democratic Senate proposal which was so harshly dismissed with all sorts of "cut and run" rhetoric.

Newsweek had a summary of the major points as follows:

A timetable for withdrawal of occupation troops from Iraq. Amnesty for all insurgents who attacked U.S. and Iraqi military targets. Release of all security detainees from U.S. and Iraqi prisons. Compensation for victims of coalition military operations. Those sound like the demands of some of the insurgents themselves, and in fact they are. But they're also key clauses of a national reconciliation plan drafted by new Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.....

Now, the criticism of the amnesty plan for insurgents that killed Americans (criticism voiced by Democrats), led to some back tracking by Maliki. His most recent statements are a little more murky on that subject. But the agreement would recognize the insurgency of local Sunni militias as a "national resistance to an occupying force". In effect, it will sanction the killing of our soldiers as part of the rules of war. That will be difficult to accept. And there are furthur indications that other factions of the Iraqi government will also have problems signing on to other parts of the agreement.

But the bottom line is that Maliki is using language which the White House been criticizing the Democrats for, relentlessly. Bush is rapidly losing control of the "message". Even the new Iraqi government is beginning to move away from the Bush policy line.

This agreement also requires recognition of the separation of this "national resistance" from the war on terrorism. A slap at the Bush administration concept of this being the premiere "battleground in the war on terror".

Withdrawal of coalition forces would use "condition based" language, but several factions within the government want actual dates to use as benchmarks. Again, another slap in the face of the Bush rhetoric.

As this proposal moves forward it will be interesting to see how well the administration receives this "negotiated way out" from this prime minister.....the leader he had to meet in the dead of night to "look into his eyes" .... the government head he now "believes in" wholeheartedly.