GOP GUV Race: There Will Be Blood 2

Category: GOP Politics

by Dave Mindeman

Yesterday's post on the GOP Governor race between Emmer and Seifert drew some interesting reactions. Let me note that nobody disputed the idea that this will be a very contentious convention fight. But the disagreement was on what happens after the convention. The conservatives that commented are convinced that it will be peaches and honey once the endorsement is decided.

OK, so let's talk about that.

Bill Jungbauer, an Emmer supporter, made his comment;

Totally wrong. We will all unite behind whoever is nominated at the convention. We are all very aware of the importance of how hard we must work together in keeping the governor's seat from a liberal.

That sounds pretty certain. But then, the convention is still a ways off and the fight has only really begun. It's easy to be sure at this stage of the game.

Frequent commenter on this site, MN Central (a centrist leaner), added another element:

Yes, it is going to be bloody. It makes me wonder if Seifert would be helped by a Primary Challenge … Emmer is so hard right that voters may see Seifert as more moderate than he is. That said, the MN-GOP voters will have a choice in November … Vote with the nominee (my bet today is Emmer) or look at Tom Horner and the IP Party...

Jungbauer responded to that:

The majority of Libertarian voters could be described as socially-moderate, fiscally-conservative Republicans. They are just one of the group of voters who are backing Tom Emmer big time. You will not see a big cross over vote like we did in 2008 because the lesson has been learned about moderates. A candidate with principles gets the respect they deserve. If you are lukewarm I shall spit you out. That is what happened to a couple of candidates in 08. Not this year.

Spit...bleeeaaaachh...spit it out. While Jungbauer expects the party to unite around the nominee, I have the feeling that the conservative thought process is that the nominee is assumed to be Emmer. And its interesting that he should mention Libertarians.

The Ron Paul faction of the party seems to be supporting Emmer. During the last cycle they were a little steamed at the way Rep. Paul was treated, as well as the way national delegates were selected. Now, I would speculate that if the Paulites are pushed aside again there will be a stronger backlash reaction.

But let's move to Mitch Berg of Shot in the Dark, who likes to weigh in on these sorts of things as well. He did his little "fisk" on the post here...

Again, he does not dispute that this will be a very tough fight. In fact, he looks forward to the battle....

So campaign like hell for whomever your candidate is – Seifert or Emmer. Because for once, conservatives are in a win-win situation. Whomever gets the nomination will be a better, more conservative governor than any of the alternatives available to us today. Neither will be perfect – but perfect, as they say, is the enemy of “plenty good enough”.

Again, easy to think of it all in those terms because the battle has not been fully joined. But Berg brings up a different point based on past history. He believes that the 2002 battle between Pawlenty and Sullivan to be a reference case in point. He says that the outcome of the 2002 battle proves that the GOP can fight the good fight and then move forward together.

Let me take you back in time to 2002. Brian Sullivan – who was and is every bit as conservative as Tom Emmer – had the backing of the conservative base. Tim Pawlenty – who held the same position in the GOP caucus that Seifert does today – and Sullivan were every bit as closely locked together as Seifert and Emmer are today. And some of the punditry, especially on the left, predicted exactly the same result; that Sullivan’s supporters would stay home, that conservatives would break away, that the GOP would battle itself into irrelevance. But the convention, as long and brutal as it got, had exactly the opposite effect. To win the endorsement, Tim Pawlenty had to adopt one of Sullivan’s key driving points – the Taxpayers League’s “No New Taxes” pledge. And for the imponderably vast majority of Minnesota conservatives, that was more than enough.

I thought about 2002 as well. But there are a few key differences in today's struggle. The fight in 2002 was a policy fight. The "no new taxes" pledge was the line in the sand. Pawlenty crossed it to get the endorsement -- end of division. Emmer and Seifert don't have any differences in tax policy. Theirs is a difference in personality and style. It is also a question of support. Conservative base vs. party establishment. Those are differences that can lead to stronger divisiveness. There is no "quit claim deed" to sign and appease the opposition.

Personality clashes can, as the definition implies, get personal. And supporters can take it personally as well. This race is dead even and the campaigns are going to do things that will capitalize on any weakness, any foible, any voting nuance.

The high ideals that I hear from conservatives at the moment can get quickly buried in the mud of attack politics. And the Republicans are masters at it -- they think it is the only way to win. Ronald Reagan's 11th commandment? Ha! You only have to look to NY-23 to see how that plays out.

Again to quote Mitch Berg:

In short, the bruising endorsement process had exactly the effect it was supposed to; a candidate won, but as a result of his fight to get endorsed, he took the keystone of his challenger’s platform to the Governor’s Mansion with him.

And what is the keystone in the current contest? What line can either of these candidates cross that will say all is well?

Seifert is the master of the malaprop. He likes to demean his opponent. And you can call Emmer a principled speaker, a zealous advocate, or man of conviction -- it all boils down to the basic criticism that is oh, so true, he's a boilerplate hothead and a loose cannon.

That's the confrontation that the GOP will have at the end of April.

As I said before, there will be blood.

Update: Here's an interesting tidbit. Wigley of The Taxpayer's League has endorsed Emmer. Yet, according to the Polinaut Blog, Seifert has signed the No New Taxes pledge, while Emmer has not.
Hmmmmmmmmmm....